Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
